WASHINGTON — As modern warfare becomes increasingly reliant on space-based networks, Russia and China are stepping up efforts to counter the dominance of commercial satellite constellations, particularly SpaceX’s Starlink. The Secure World Foundation (SWF), a nonpartisan policy think tank, detailed these developments in its latest annual report which assesses global counterspace capabilities.
The report, “Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment,” released April 3, notes that Starlink has become a prime target for adversarial nations after demonstrating its military utility in Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Russia’s ‘Starlink Killer’
Ukrainian military units began experiencing Starlink outages in May 2024, which Ukrainian officials attribute to Russia “testing different mechanisms” with its electronic warfare systems, the report says.
SWF analysts highlight two key Russian systems: Tobol and Kalinka. Originally designed to protect Russian satellites from jamming, the Tobol system has been repurposed to disrupt satellite communications and navigation systems like GPS. At least seven Tobol complexes are distributed across Russian territory, and leaked U.S. military documents suggest Russia has deployed at least three installations specifically to target Starlink signals over Eastern Ukraine.
More concerning to the U.S. and allies is Russia’s newer Kalinka system, dubbed the “Starlink Killer.” This electronic warfare platform can reportedly detect and disrupt signals to and from Starlink satellites, with the specific goal of interfering with Ukrainian drones and military communications.
What makes Kalinka particularly worrisome is its alleged ability to detect terminals connected to Starshield, the military version of Starlink designed with enhanced security features, notes the report.
China’s Strategic Focus
While Russia’s electronic warfare efforts are battle-tested in Ukraine, China is making significant investments in similar capabilities with an eye toward potential future conflicts.
The report cites a 2022 study sponsored by China’s People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force that explicitly recommends developing counterspace capabilities to target commercial satellite constellations like Starlink in the event of armed conflict with the United States.
“Chinese military doctrine places heavy emphasis on gaining the initiative at the outset of conflict,” the report states. “This would likely involve attacks against satellite networks to disrupt adversaries’ access to communications and navigation.”
In the section of the report about cyber attacks on satellite systems, SWF says Starlink’s constellation of thousands of small satellites in low Earth orbit has proven remarkably resilient to cyber intrusions.
The Secure World Foundation’s report also tracks counterspace developments in the United States, India, Australia, France, Iran, Israel, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, noting that while kinetic anti-satellite weapons continue to be researched and tested, non-kinetic methods like electronic warfare and cyber operations are already being actively deployed.
U.S. officials suggest that as reliance on space-based assets grows, the competition to control or deny access to space will only intensify, with commercial operators increasingly caught in the crossfire of geopolitical tensions.
