Following announcements of layoffs, a Starbucks store is shown in Encinitas, California, U.S., February 24, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Mike Blake | Reuters
Restaurant stocks fell in morning trading Monday, fueled by investors’ fears that a recession is coming.
U.S. stocks have tumbled for three consecutive days after President Donald Trump shocked the markets with high tariffs on goods imported from key trading partners. While analysts do not expect the tariffs to hit most restaurant companies directly, the inflation that is expected to follow would put pressure on consumers’ wallets and could lead to an economic downturn.
“We view the direct cost impact of tariffs on restaurants as manageable, with a focus on select commodity costs, but see the bigger risk as incremental pressure on consumer spending and industry demand,” UBS analyst Dennis Geiger wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
Investor concerns hit restaurant stocks across all sectors.
Shares of Starbucks fell more than 3%, following a downgrade to neutral from Baird, citing near-term economic headwinds. The coffee chain, which is already attempting to turn around its U.S. business, has seen its shares sink nearly 20% since Trump unveiled the new tariffs.
“Explanations for the drawdown we heard included higher coffee costs from tariffs, anti-American sentiment, and recession risk,” Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a research note on Saturday.
Most of the world’s coffee is grown in an equatorial region that spans Latin America, the Asia Pacific region and Africa known as the Coffee Belt. Last week, Trump slapped higher tariffs on key coffee exporters like Vietnam, Brazil and Switzerland, where beans are roasted. Like bananas and vanilla, coffee production cannot be easily shifted to the U.S. because of high domestic demand and climate limitations.
Trade tensions also put Starbucks’ international sales at risk. Consumers in China, the company’s second-largest market, have boycotted Western brands previously for political reasons.
A sign is posted in front of an Applebee’s restaurant on June 12, 2024 in Hayward, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Casual dining chains also took a tumble. Shares of Dine Brands, which owns Applebee’s and IHOP, sank nearly 3%, while shares of rivals Darden Restaurants and Texas Roadhouse dropped more than 2% and 3%, respectively.
Fast-casual stocks, a recent favorite of investors, also slipped. Chipotle shares slid nearly 2%, Sweetgreen’s stock fell nearly 1%, and shares of Wingstop sank 3%.
Fast-food stocks were not spared from Monday’s declines. Shares of McDonald’s, Restaurant Brands International and Yum Brands all dipped in morning trading.
Historically, fast-food chains have fared the best during recessions as diners seeking cheap meals trade down from full-service or fast-casual eateries to McDonald’s or Taco Bell. But last year’s pullback in consumer spending saw fast-food eateries hit hard. Low-income consumers visited less frequently and pared back their orders, while consumers with higher incomes stuck to their usual dining habits, leading to same-store sales declines for quick-service restaurants.
Few restaurant stocks were in the green. Shares of Dutch Bros., a fast-growing rival of Starbucks, rose more than 3% in morning trading after tumbling nearly 10% on Friday. Cava gained more than 3%, while Domino’s Pizza rose slightly.
