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Bitcoin may be gearing up for a renewed surge, but according to trader Josh Olszewicz, the bullish setup is walking a macroeconomic tightrope—and one wrong move could send everything tumbling. In his June 16 “Macro Monday” update, Olszewicz laid out a broad-based technical and macroeconomic case for why BTC is holding firm near all-time highs, while warning that the market’s resilience is underpinned by a single, fragile macro factor: liquidity.
$150K Bitcoin? Only If Powell Doesn’t Pull The Plug
“Crypto clearly doesn’t care. Legacy clearly doesn’t care,” Olszewicz said, referring to the continued rally in risk assets despite no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. “Both of those are mooning without rates coming down.”
The key, according to him, lies in the quiet resurgence of global liquidity. While the Fed has not yet pivoted to easing, and markets are pricing near-zero odds of cuts in the June or July FOMC meetings, US and global liquidity metrics have started to turn upward. Olszewicz specifically pointed to reverse repo operations and the Treasury General Account (TGA) as crucial levers.
“When reverse repo drains, it helps liquidity. When TGA spends down, it helps liquidity. Right now, neither is doing much, but both are trending in the right direction,” he said. “And that’s enough to keep risk assets buoyant.”
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The current setup, Olszewicz argued, bears little resemblance to the hard tightening regimes of 2018 or 2022. Globally, rate hike cycles are easing or reversing altogether. “It has been liquidity going up,” he emphasized. “If liquidity falls, if rates go up, then I’d expect crypto to have a hard time.”
For Bitcoin, which remains pinned near its all-time high, the structure looks increasingly constructive. The trader noted that BTC has so far resisted any meaningful breakdowns and continues to reclaim key technical levels. “We’re hovering at all-time highs. That’s what you want to see,” he said. “You want to see us just continually fight off these sell-offs. It’s not a good look to lose highs quickly.”
From a technical standpoint, Olszewicz identified $97,980 as the key downside level to watch if Bitcoin does falter. But on the upside, he sees clear potential for continuation: “I like $122K as a pit stop, and then eventually we’ll settle in probably somewhere in the $150K range if we really get going.”
But that path is far from guaranteed. The wildcard in Olszewicz’s framework is US liquidity—a metric he calculates as the Federal Reserve balance sheet minus the TGA and reverse repo. It’s rising, but only modestly. “We are seeing liquidity start to tick up again back to the top of the range,” he said. “Nothing super impressive just yet, but this is very helpful—especially for alts, obviously for BTC, but this is what alts need.”
And that’s the catch. If liquidity stalls or reverses—whether due to an unexpected Fed tightening move, a jump in TGA balances around tax deadlines, or a reactivation of reverse repo drains—then the entire crypto rally could be put at risk. “If this goes to zero,” Olszewicz warned about the reverse repo facility, “there may be liquidity issues and then they may have to reinstate QE.”
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He also flagged August as a critical juncture, with a possible US debt ceiling crunch looming. “Just pay attention to what’s going on going into August, assuming the debt ceiling isn’t raised,” he said. “Higher the debt, higher the deficit, the more investors move to fixed supply assets. That’s better for crypto.”
But none of this guarantees a clean move to $150K. As Olszewicz noted, we’re still waiting on one essential domino to fall: inflation stability. While “true inflation” data from independent trackers is hovering in the low 2s, Fed-preferred metrics like CPI and PCE remain volatile. For Powell to act, the data needs to show three to six months of sustained, flatline 2% inflation. “You do not want 2.3 one month, 2.6 the next month, 2.4, 2.8,” Olszewicz said. “You want a stable 2%.”
Until then, the Fed is likely to hold firm. But the longer Bitcoin maintains momentum without a rate cut, the more market psychology begins to shift—toward a scenario where easing becomes a bonus, not a prerequisite.
“If we’re doing well without rates coming down, why are we rooting for rates to come down?” Olszewicz asked. The answer, for Bitcoin, may come down to just one macro metric: liquidity. If it holds, $150,000 is still very much in play. But if it snaps—so could the cycle.
At press time, BTC traded at $105,325.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
