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Bitwise Asset Management’s European research arm argues that the sharp sell-off that followed last week’s military escalation between Iran and Israel is likely to give way to a powerful relief rally in Bitcoin, echoing the cryptocurrency’s behaviour after earlier geopolitical shocks. In its 16 June weekly newsletter Bitwise Europe points to a “Chart of the Week” that lines up the twenty most significant geopolitical risk events since July 2010 and finds that, on average, Bitcoin was “up 31.2 percent fifty days after the event, with a median gain of 10.2 percent.”
According to the authors, “major geopolitical risk events tend to be good buying opportunities for bitcoin and other crypto assets.” The firm’s in-house Crypto Asset Sentiment Index briefly turned negative on Friday—its first dip below zero since May—but had already swung back into slightly bullish territory by Monday morning, a shift Bitwise attributes to renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded products and continued US-dollar weakness. At Bitcoin’s current price of around $107,000, a 31% rally would bring it to approximately $140,000.
Missiles Fly, Bitcoin To $140,000?
The historical analogue is being tested in real time as markets digest the first open exchange of missiles between Tehran and Jerusalem. The Associated Press reports that Iran has fired more than 370 projectiles at Israel since 13 June, killing at least twenty-four people, while Israel claims to have destroyed over 120 Iranian launchers and says it now enjoys “full aerial superiority over Tehran.”
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The confrontation triggered a textbook flight to safety: gold blasted through $3,430 an ounce on Friday, establishing a fresh record high, while Brent crude spiked and global equities lurched lower. Bitcoin, which had been flirting with its all-time peak near $111,000 early last week, sank as low as $102,600 during the first wave of air-strike headlines before rebounding to the $106,000–107,000 zone. Even after that drawdown, Bitwise notes, the flagship cryptocurrency still out-performed the S&P 500 on a weekly basis thanks to a late-week equity swoon.
Bitwise’s thesis rests on three pillars. First is behavioural: previous geopolitical shocks—from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to the US–Iran standoff of January 2020—produced knee-jerk liquidations in risk assets, yet Bitcoin’s selling pressure tended to exhaust quickly, setting the stage for a mean-reversion pop. Second is macroeconomic.
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The firm highlights a “pronounced depreciation of the US Dollar,” as the DXY index slid to its weakest level since March 2022 following softer-than-expected inflation prints and another uptick in continuing unemployment claims. Fed-funds futures now imply 1.9 rate cuts by December 2025, loosening global financial conditions and historically favourable for non-yielding, dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin.
Third is structural demand: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $1.37 billion last week, while corporate treasuries kept accumulating—Strategy’s Michael Saylor announced the acquisition of 10,100 BTC for $1.05 billion today , and Tokyo-listed Metaplanet disclosed an additional 1,112 BTC purchase that brings its war chest to 10,000 coins.
In derivatives, Bitwise flags that the put-call open-interest ratio on Bitcoin options ended the week at 0.61 after dipping to 0.55, while the one-month 25-delta skew flipped decisively into positive territory at +4.87 percent, indicating a premium for upside exposure despite realised volatility languishing around 30 percent. Funding rates on perpetual swaps also remained net long even during Thursday’s risk-off purge, a pattern the firm interprets as “bullish positioning or demand for topside hedging.” Behind the scenes, whales withdrew a net 169,527 BTC from exchanges, and exchange-held reserves fell to 2.92 million coins—about 14.6 percent of supply—further tightening spot liquidity.
Sceptics may note that past performance is not predictive and that the explosive rally following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was fuelled in part by unprecedented monetary stimulus that may not be replicated. Bitwise itself concedes that realised losses spiked to $55.5 million on-chain last week and that momentum in “apparent demand” has softened.
Yet the firm argues that the confluence of structural inflows, dollar weakness and depressed sentiment mirrors the set-ups that preceded its historical sample of 31-percent rallies. As the newsletter concludes, “structural demand by both ETPs and corporate treasuries as well as continued macro tailwinds via Dollar weakness and global money supply expansion still support a positive market development for bitcoin and crypto assets.”
At press time, BTC traded at $107,239.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
