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Mass deportations enabled by the Trump administration’s Big, Beautiful Bill spending and tax package could cost the U.S. over $1 trillion in the coming years, as the administration is already reportedly struggling to fund its rapidly expanding immigration crackdown.
The package, which the House of Representatives passed last month, directs $168 billion towards immigration and border law enforcement agencies.
That spending, combined with the economic impact of removing scores of immigrants and more granular changes, like a potential decline in revenues thanks to the possible deterrent effect of new fees on migrants, could cost the U.S. over $1.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis from the libertarian Cato Institute.
David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Institute, argued on X on Friday that the bill is an “absolute explosion of cash unparalleled in American history,” spending that could be better used on other public safety investments.
“The fiscal cost of mass deportation will equal the cost of all federal law enforcement spending over the next decade,” Bier wrote. “Imagine how many rapes, murders, thefts, etc. could be solved with this money. We could have a much, much safer society spending this money on ANYTHING ELSE.”
Even without the Big, Beautiful Bill, the administration is already rapidly burning through immigration funding.
As of March, Immigration and Customs Enforcement was reportedly $2 billion short of maintaining its current pace of operations through the end of the fiscal year,
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the architect of much of the administration’s immigration agenda, has brushed off such concerns, arguing last week on X that, “Anyone serious about limited government and improving America’s financial health would understand that ending mass migration is the prerequisite for every other problem we wish to solve.”
Immigration analysts aren’t the only ones concerned about the fiscal impact of the reconciliation package.
As part of the acrimonious split between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the Tesla billionaire lambasted the Big, Beautiful Bill as an “outrageous, pork-filled, disgusting abomination” that added too much spending to the federal balance sheet.
