Scenarios For Tomorrow’s FOMC Decision

With the Federal Open Market Committee set to announce its May 7 policy decision, Bitcoin traders face a macro‑driven inflection point that could define price action into the summer. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, is all but certain to keep the fed‑funds corridor at 4.25 to 4.50 percent; CME Group’s FedWatch tool assigns a 98.2 percent probability to an unchanged stance. That near‑certainty, however, has not muffled political noise.

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have publicly pressed for lower borrowing costs, yet Powell’s most recent public remarks on 16 April framed monetary policy as “in a wait‑and‑see mode,” adding that the labor market “is in decent shape” but that the Fed’s “obligation is to keep longer‑term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one‑time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.” In effect, the central bank continues to prioritize price stability even as leading indicators imply a cooling economy and a likely pivot to easing in the second half of the year.

FOMC Preview For Bitcoin

For Bitcoin, the debate is less about whether the Fed blinks tomorrow and more about how algorithmic liquidity and discretionary positioning react to the tone of Powell’s press conference. Crypto trader Josh Rager told his followers on X, “Expect chop chop until FOMC tomorrow. Then after the rate cut announcement, expect volatility. With a reversal during Powell’s speech. That’s my FOMC playbook at the moment.” Although Rager’s baseline presumes an eventual reduction in rates, his near‑term focus is the intraday whipsaw that typically frames the statement‑and‑Q&A window.

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Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) offered a more probabilistic roadmap, emphasizing that his trademarked FOMC‑reversal model has “consistently provided reversals with an over 85 percent chance. If the mechanics continue to play out for this month, that would mean we would (have) top(ped) out this or last week before a significant move down.”

Yet he tempers that historical edge by noting that the prevailing quarterly uptrend in Bitcoin could blunt the signal: “That would mean that this and/or next FOMC meeting both have a weakened reversal effect in the midst of what I expect to be a strong uptrend.”

In practical terms, he foresees: “I think the most likely scenario (76% chance) is a move up from here and the FOMC reversal gets completely ignored. The smaller chance (24%) is indeed a rather shallow pullback within our stoploss area.”

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Columbus (@columbus0x) looks to the microstructure for confirmation. Citing a Hyblock heat‑map of liquidations, he expects “a wick below into the box… below the equal lows and also exactly the area that Hyblock has highlighted as a yellow zone,” a region that coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the last significant swing low.

Should Powell strike a hawkish tone, Columbus anticipates “a deviation below the range low / a retest of the 200‑day SMA, closing the CME gap between $91.8  and$92.4 k – or possibly even dipping into the high $80’s. Nonetheless: trend is up.”

Momentum diagnostics add a final layer. Titan of Crypto observes that Bitcoin “is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the daily MACD is crossing bearish, signaling slowing momentum.” A confirmed rollover in the histogram would align with the shallow‑pullback scenario outlined by Astronomer and Columbus, yet the consolidation itself keeps higher‑time‑frame trend traders constructive

Taken together, tomorrow’s decision appears binary only on the surface; the real determinant is Powell’s forward‑guidance language and its impact on terminal‑rate pricing. If the Chair stresses patience while acknowledging softer data, the curve could begin to discount a June cut, providing a macro tailwind that validates the bulls’ quarterly thesis.

Conversely, any hint of renewed vigilance on inflation would embolden short‑term bears hunting liquidity below $92 k. Either way, the tape has little room for complacency: liquidity is thin, options gamma is clustered around the psychologically resonant $100,000 strike, and the narrative energy surrounding a second‑half‑of‑2025 easing cycle is colliding head‑on with the Fed’s near‑term inflation mandate.

At press time, BTC traded at $94,097.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com