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Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has delivered a Bitcoin update suggesting that the asset could be entering the “perfect storm” phase of its four-year cycle. But in a twist that defies traditional cycle models, Loukas now sees the possibility of a delayed blowoff top extending into early 2026 and introduces the prospect of a rare double-cycle structure.
In his latest installment of the Four-Year Journey published on June 26, Loukas reaffirms that the current Bitcoin cycle — which began with the November 2022 low — remains structurally intact and is nearing its climactic phase. “This is certainly the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle,” Loukas states. “We’re now sort of on the cusp of what traditionally has been the beginning or the blowoff phase of a cycle.”
Bitcoin Blowoff Delayed?
What separates this cycle, according to Loukas, is the unique combination of maturing fundamentals and a confluence of macro, institutional, and regulatory forces. These include continued ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and a radical policy shift under the Trump administration, including what he anticipates may be a pro-crypto Fed chair appointment. Together, these forces are creating what he calls a “perfect storm” for price expansion.
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Loukas is cautious about providing hard price targets but acknowledges a doubling effect that could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000–$170,000 in the short term. Historically, such phases have seen Bitcoin double in a matter of months once new highs are breached. “A breakout to the upside can see Bitcoin essentially almost double in a very short period of time,” he says, pointing to prior legs of the cycle where Bitcoin surged from $25K to $75K or $50K to $100K within five-month windows.
Yet what makes this latest report particularly notable is Loukas’ introduction of a more complex structure he calls a “double cycle blowoff.” He describes this as a fusion of two adjacent four-year cycle peaks — a concept that could delay the market top to as late as February or March 2026, well beyond the traditional 35-month cycle peak window.
“If we’ve still got sort of a six to seven month expansion to a peak… that would lead us into maybe even a February or March peak,” Loukas explains. This scenario, while still within the broader cyclical rhythm, would imply a 39–41 month uptrend rather than the typical 33–35 months. “I do think it’s time… 15–16 years into Bitcoin’s adoption,” he notes, referencing the arc from early tech believers to deep institutional penetration.
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The implications are significant. A delayed peak could mean a much shorter corrective phase — or even the emergence of a second explosive rally as the next cycle begins, creating what Loukas describes as the illusion of one extended supercycle. “There’s a significant upside potential still to come in this cycle,” he says, warning that many may be caught off guard. “You don’t want to be surprised.”
BTC Price Targets
Loukas also addresses the broader sentiment picture, noting that the typical mania — the kind that marked tops in 2017 and late 2021 — has not yet materialized. “We haven’t seen that sort of blowoff, absolute extreme sentiment that you typically would see near the top,” he says. He sees this as further evidence that the final phase is still ahead.
Regarding the price target for a supercycle, Loukas ponders: “I can see numbers in the quarter of a million level. I can also see some really crazy numbers when you see prior manias and bubbles in different asset classes, […] Seeing a 5x, 6x, 7x move from here over a 2-year period in a major mania is not really a stretch. Even from a market cap perspective, it’s not a stretch, seeing where gold is already heading through the $20 trillion level and well beyond.”
While he emphasizes that these ideas are probabilistic and not predictions, Loukas does warn of the long-term consequences if his double-cycle thesis plays out. A massive influx of institutional capital, sovereign interest, and retail mania could ultimately trigger Bitcoin’s first true secular bear market, one not measured in months but in years. “If you consider a mania leadup where so many treasury companies and traditional flows come together and peak… the unwinding process just takes a lot longer.”
For now, Loukas’ model portfolio remains partially in cash after trimming some positions near recent highs, reflecting a conservative approach tailored to capital preservation. Still, he acknowledges that younger or more risk-tolerant investors may view this moment as a final accumulation window before the next phase begins. “This video is very, very bullish, right?” he quips.
At press time, BTC traded at $107,317.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
